The prospect of a new all-time low in the US land rig count grows imminent, according to RigData’s RADAR Report.  Writing in the February 18, 2016, issue of that report, the RigData News & Analysis (RDNA) team notes that RigData’s all-time low land rig count was 467, a number set on both March 26, 1999, and April 9, 1999.

The latest RADAR Report tally, reflecting a February 12, 2016, data sample, was just 8 short of that grim milestone. The RDNA team concludes that not only will the record nadir be surpassed but that a sub-500 active US land rig count is the “new normal” for the near term.

In a separate article in that same issue, the RDNA team assesses capex reductions by some key operators in the Eagle Ford Shale this year and concludes that, should other operators follow suit, the play could see fewer than half as many active rigs as is the case today by yearend. Extrapolating that trend to other plays could mean another 100 rigs dropping out of the total count this year.