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OPEC’s Last Cut Shows Oil Market Could Get a Whole Lot Messier

  • Monday, November 28, 2016
  • Posted By Meagan Wildfong

OPECs Last Cut
Source: Bloomberg | Angelina Rascouet and Grant Smith | November 28, 2016

Anyone planning to trade the outcome of this week’s OPEC meeting might consider the lessons of the group’s last production cut. Then take a deep breath.

 

In December 2008, as oil demand and prices slumped during the global financial crisis, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, announced a record output reduction. What was supposed to stabilize the market initially sowed more confusion as the group’s statement bundled together previously announced supply curbs and omitted a breakdown of how much each member would cut -- details of which leaked out days later.

 

While the deal did eventually halt the slide in prices, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Crude Oil Volatility Index, a common measure of market turbulence, stayed near a record over the following two months amid doubts that OPEC members would comply with their new targets.

 

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