US Gulf of Mexico oil production is expected to grow to a record 1.9 million b/d by yearend 2017, adding to concerns over how long the global oil supply glut will persist. That will represent 21% of forecast oil production in 2017 vs. the GOM accounting for 16% this year.
The added output stems from the start-up of 8 projects in 2015, 4 this year, and 2 next year, and they follow a string of deepwater GOM start-ups dating back 15 years, according to the EIA. However, contend RigData Offshore analysts, due to the oil price collapse, GOM permits are down, newbuild orders have fallen sharply, rig contracts are being canceled or renegotiated, capex by the majors is down this year by 20–25%, and offshore rigs of fairly recent vintage face retirement, repurposing, or even scrappage.
In the final analysis, according to RigData Offshore, despite the record GOM production in 2017, the oil price collapse will in due time rein in the sizzling US offshore production growth as well.