Source: S&P Global Platts RADAR, January 17, 2018
S&P Global Platts Senior Analyst Kevin Sakofs
Platts Analytics has long held the view that 2019 production
momentum in Appalachia will slow. Our current Reference Case
suggests that sequential growth, i.e. December over December,
will level off to ~2 Bcf/d — 50% below what was realized
in 2017 and 2018. Critical to this view is an assumption that
capex and activity levels will moderate, as publically traded
companies balance growth with shareholder-friendly initiatives.
As such, tracking the announced, or soon to be announced, 2019
capex and production plans will be instrumental in understanding
the potential growth of the basin.
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With that noted, recent guidance this week from Antero
fits our broader narrative of moderating growth. Indeed, the
company lowered 2019 capex levels — which included a ~23%
decline in 2019 expected well completions relative to their
prior outlook in October. In addition, their long-term (2020-
2023) production target was also lowered to a 10 to 15% CAGR,
down from a 20% CAGR through 2020 and 15% growth rate in
2021 and 2022. For 2019, output is also expected to slow, with
the company forecasting dry gas production of ~2.25 Bcf/d for
the year, a modest 5% increase relative to 4Q estimates. For
comparative purposes, estimated 4Q18 production is expected to
be up ~13% relative to 4Q17.
Looking ahead, Platts Analytics expects more producers to strike
a similar tone to Antero, which could help improve broader
gas pricing sentiment as 2019+ production estimates move lower.
This is an excerpt from S&P Global Platts RADAR, January 17, 2019 issue.
Call 800-371-0083 to request a sample copy.
Upstream Activity Data for North America
For more information on North American upstream activity including permitting, drilling activity, production and completion data please contact S&P Global Platts via email CustomerService.RigData@spglobal.com or call 800-371-0083.